The Sun Defines Earth’s Climate, Mankind’s Influence has been irrelevant …
Illustration: Gallileo’s Sunspot Letters!
Greg Lance – Watkins
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Habibullo Abdussamatov, Dr. Sc. – Head of Space research laboratory of the Pulkovo Observatory, Head of the Russian/Ukrainian joint project Astrometria – has a few things to say about solar activity and climate. Thanks to Russ Steele of NCWatch
Observations of the Sun show that as for the increase in temperature, carbon dioxide is “not guilty” and as for what lies ahead in the upcoming decades, it is not catastrophic warming, but a global, and very prolonged, temperature drop.
[…] Over the past decade, global temperature on the Earth has not increased; global warming has ceased, and already there are signs of the future deep temperature drop.
[…] It follows that warming had a natural origin, the contribution of CO2 to it was insignificant, anthropogenic increase in the concentration of carbon dioxide does not serve as an explanation for it, and in the foreseeable future CO2 will not be able to cause catastrophic warming. The so-called greenhouse effect will not avert the onset of the next deep temperature drop, the 19th in the last 7500 years, which without fail follows after natural warming.
[…] We should fear a deep temperature drop — not catastrophic global warming. Humanity must survive the serious economic, social, demographic and political consequences of a global temperature drop, which will directly affect the national interests of almost all countries and more than 80% of the population of the Earth. A deep temperature drop is a considerably greater threat to humanity than warming. However, a reliable forecast of the time of the onset and of the depth of the global temperature drop will make it possible to adjust in advance the economic activity of humanity, to considerably weaken the crisis.
The Full Study is here. (PDF patience, it may take a few moments to load)
Below is the full text of the English translation of Habibullo Abdussamatov, Dr. Sc. Essay as Published in the Russian journal “Nauka i Zhizn” (“Science and Life”), 2009, N1, pp. 34-42.
(translated from Russian by Lucy Hancock):
THE SUN DEFINES THE CLIMATE
Habibullo Abdussamatov, Dr. Sc.
Head of Space research laboratory of the Pulkovo Observatory,
Head of the Russian/Ukrainian joint project Astrometria
Published in the Russian journal “Nauka i Zhizn” (“Science and Life”), 2009, N1, pp. 34-42.
(translated from Russian by Lucy Hancock)
Experts of the United Nations in regular reports publish data said to show that
the Earth is approaching a catastrophic global warming, caused by increasing
emissions of carbon dioxide to the atmosphere. However, observations of the Sun
show that as for the increase in temperature, carbon dioxide is “not guilty” and as for
what lies ahead in the upcoming decades, it is not catastrophic warming, but a global,
and very prolonged, temperature drop.
Life on earth completely depends on solar radiation, the ultimate source of energy for
natural processes. For a long time it was thought that the luminosity of the Sun never
changes, and for this reason the quantity of solar energy received per second over one
square meter above the atmosphere at the distance of the Earth from the Sun (149 597 892km), was named the solar constant.
Until 1978, precise measurements of the value of the total solar irradiance (TSI) were
not available. But according to indirect data, namely the established major climate variations of the Earth in recent millennia, one must doubt the invariance of its value.
In the middle of the nineteenth century, German and Swiss astronomers Heinrich
Schwabe and Rudolf Wolf established that the number of spots on the surface of the Sun
periodically changes, diminishing from a maximum to a minimum, and then growing again, over a time frame on the order of 11 years. Wolf introduced an index (“W”) of the relative number of sunspots, computed as the sum of 10 times number of sunspot groups plus the total number of spots in all groups. This number has been regularly measured since 1849.
Drawing on the work of professional astronomers and the observations of amateurs (which are of uncertain reliability) Wolf worked out a reconstruction of monthly values from 1749 as well as annual values from 1700. Today, the reconstruction of this time series stretches back to 1611. It has an eleven-year cycle of recurrence as well as other cycles related to onset and development of individual sunspot groups: changes in the fraction of the solar surface occupied by faculae, the frequency of prominences, and other phenomena in the solar chromosphere and corona.
Analyzing the long record of sunspot numbers, the English astronomer Walter
Maunder in 1893 came to the conclusion that from 1645 to 1715 sunspots had been
generally absent. Over the thirty-year period of the Maunder Minimum, astronomers of the time counted only about 50 spots. Usually, over that length of time, about 50,000 sunspots would appear. Today, it has been established that such minima have repeatedly occurred in the past.
It is also known that the Maunder Minimum accompanied the coldest phase of a
global temperature dip, physically measured in Europe and other regions, the most severe such dip for several millennia, which stretched from the fourteenth to the nineteenth centuries (now known as the Little Ice Age).
The search for a relationship between large climate variations and phenomena
observed in the Sun led to an interest in finding a connection between periods of change in the terrestrial climate and corresponding significant changes in the level of observed solar activity, because the sunspot number is the only index that has been measured over a long period of time.
Variations in solar activity and climate
Analyzing data on solar activity, the American astrophysicist John Eddy in 1976 noted
a correlation between periods of significant change in the number of spots in the past
millennium and large changes in the climate of the Earth, changes that have profoundly
influenced the life of peoples and states, initiating economic and demographic crises. Later,
St. Petersburg geophysicist Eugene Borisenkov showed (1988) that in each of 18 deep
minima of solar activity of the Maunder Minimum type, minima which have occurred about
every 200 years for the last 7500 years, there have been periods of deep temperature
decline, while in the periods of high sunspot maxima, there have been periods of global
warming. Such changes in the climate of the Earth could be caused only by lasting and
significant changes in the Sun, because there was absolutely no industrial effect on nature
in those times. This supports the idea that in the bicentennial periods of maximum levels of
solar activity, the TSI has always substantially increased, and it has noticeably decreased in
periods of minima.
Thus, not 11-year, but bicentennial cycles of solar variation are the dominant factor in
climate variations that last for decades: temperatures in the ocean-atmosphere system, the
physical parameters of the earth’s surface and its albedo, concentrations of greenhouse
gases (primarily water vapor and carbon dioxide) in the atmosphere. Also, a quite important
influence on climate is exerted by the world ocean, which possesses large thermal inertia
and serves as the principal receiver and storage of solar energy.
Inconstancy of the TSI
At present there is a continuous sequence of observations of values of the TSI S~
from 1978 (heavy line in Fig. 1), directly measured by space instruments. The largest value
was observed in solar cycle 22 (of the “short” 11-year cycles), which fell in the maximum of
the bicentennial cycle. This value was 1365.98 ± 0.02 W/m2
. In solar cycle 23, the maximum
was substantially less: 1365.79 W/m2
. The values of the TSI measured in the minima of
solar cycles 21, 22 and 23 were 1365.57, 1365.50 and 1365.17 W/m2
from 1 July through September 2008 the constant was 1365.10 W/m2
. The amplitude of the
11-year oscillations of the TSI during the maximum of the bicentennial cycle was
approximately 1.0 W/m2
, or 0.07%; from the beginning of the 1990s it began to decline
gradually. The level relative to which these oscillations occur is the bicentennial component
of variation in the TSI, revealed by us in 2005 (dotted line in Fig. 1).
Comparison of trends in variation of the TSI with sunspot number shows that the Sun
emits more energy per month at its minimum, namely when the number of sunspots is a
maximum (Fig. 2). But, unfortunately, even in textbooks on the climatology the opposite is
said about the TSI and there is no reference at all to its bicentennial component.
Fig. 1. Variation in the TSI during the period 1978 to 2008 (heavy line) and its
bicentennial component (dash line), revealed by us. Distinct short-term upward
excursions are caused by the passage of faculae on the solar disk, and downward
excursions by the passage of sunspot groups. (Graph is taken from the site
Fig. 2. Variation of the TSI (a);
of the average monthly values of sunspot number W (b) since 1978.
Fig. 3. Variation in the TSI drawing on the data reconstruction of Lean, J.L
(2000) and Wang Y. – M., Lean J.L., Sheeley N.R. (2005) up to 1978, sunspot activity
of the Sun from 1611, and changes forecast by us after 2008 (dotted lines).
The bicentennial component of the variation in the TSI has decreased serially
at a rate that has been accelerating from the 21st solar cycle to the 22nd and 23rd
(dotted line in Fig. 1). A comparable drop within the same period, as expected, is
observed in the fluctuations of the number of spots (heavy line in Fig. 3). It is
tentatively appropriate to assume: if in the maximum of 11-year “short” cycle the
relative number of spots is less than 80, then the Sun is cold (intensity of radiated
energy is lower than average), while if the sunspot number is greater than 80, the
Sun is hotter than average. The presently-observed simultaneous drop in the
bicentennial components of both the value of TSI and the level of solar activity, a
drop which is accelerating, indicates the beginning of the actively-decreasing phase
of a “long” (200-year) solar cycle.
Variations in the TSI – the result of changing the radius
Oscillation in the intensity of solar radiation follows from changes in the radius of the
Sun. When the radiating surface increases, luminosity grows. The TSI is determined by the
where is the Stephan-Boltzmann constant, A the average distance from Sun to earth (the
astronomical unit); R~= 695 900 ± 70 km the radius of the Sun; and Teff = 5776 K the Sun’s
effective temperature. A differential change in the TSI is expressed thus:
Such a change occurs as a result of the flow of complex processes in the
interior of the Sun. Even a smooth change in the temperature of surface layer, no
more than 10-3 °K in a 24-hour period, leads to disruption of hydrostatic equilibrium
(the balance between internal pressure and gravity). Restoration of thermodynamic
equilibrium can be achieved through a change in the size of the Sun to that value
which restores balance; specifically, restores the temperature of the surface to the
previous level, such that ΔTeff = 0, thus the relationship:
In that case, alternations in the TSI occur as a result of fluctuations in the radius of
the Sun with an amplitude of up to 250 km in the 11-year cycle, and 700-800 km in
the bicentennial cycle (Fig. 3). The precise value of these fluctuations serves as the
most important indicator of both the TSI and the level of solar activity. Therefore,
long-term, high-precision measurements of the solar radius would facilitate a morereliable estimate of the value of the TSI and its fluctuations.
The bicentennial or “long” cycle of solar activity plays the predominant role in
laws governing the development of the daughter or “short” 11-year cycles, since the
latter’s duration sequentially increases during the increasing phase of the long cycle,
until the maximum of the “long” cycle occurs and its decrease sets in (Fig. 4). The
duration of the current solar cycle 23 (12 years) is not an exception to this rule and
on the whole it supports the hypothesis of dependence. This cycle’s uniqueness
consists in the fact that it has become the most prolonged among all the reliably
observed cycles in more than 150 years of observations. This further confirms the
initiation of the actively-decreasing phase of the bicentennial cycle.
The existence of cycles of solar activity in which solar activity, luminosity and
diameter vary in synchrony is reliably established. Strictly speaking, the Sun is never
found in a steady state of energetic and mechanical equilibrium. The Sun is a
variable star, which changes its parameters under “short” and “long” cycles, and its
behavior cannot be precisely predicted. Studies of cyclic variation in the behavior of
the Sun and of the processes that occur in its interior have great value for
astrophysics; the theory of stars was conceived and later substantiated through solar
research. Unfortunately, direct observation of comparable fluctuations of the intensity
of emission and radius of other stars cannot be undertaken in the near future.
Still, cyclic variations in the level of solar activity/sunspot number, though they
occur in parallel with fluctuations of the solar radius and TSI, themselves have
virtually no effect on the terrestrial climate.
Fig. 4. Dependence of the duration of the 11-year cycles of the sunspot activity
(R) on the phase of bicentennial cycle (X – 23rd cycle). Plotted on the Y-axis is the
duration “short” cycles; plotted on the X-axis – phase of bicentennial cycle.
Fig. 5. Observed variations in the 11-year sunspot activity (continuous thin line) and
the bicentennial activity of the Sun (continuous heavy line) 1700-2008, and our
forecast of variations in these values for the period of 2009-2042 (dotted lines).
Variation in the temperature in the interior of the Sun
Changes in the temperature of the Sun’s core result in corresponding changes
of pressure; equilibrium is disrupted. Fluctuations of the energy of thermonuclear
fusion in the solar core may be the cause of the transience of the thermodynamic
state of the Sun. Long-period radial motions of plasma, cyclically reversing direction
depending on changes in the temperature, must be taking place within the Sun.
These radial motions of plasma in turn may catalyze change in the number of
sunspots and the TSI. The additional energy released in solar core may be the
source of energy for these motions.
The amplitude of fluctuations of the temperature of the solar core, and in turn of
the radius of the Sun, would determine the power of the solar cycle. Small
amplitudes may initiate weak cycles (i.e., where the increase in the level of activity
and the value of TSI are small), and large amplitudes initiate powerful cycles. A
missing change, or very small one, in the temperature of the solar core at its
minimum could lead to deep “downfall” similar to the Maunder minimum.
Consequently, the precise value of the radius of the Sun and its relative changes
serve as parameters of the first importance and are among basic indicators of the
value of the TSI and the level of activity of sunspot formation.
Fig. 6. Increase of the ice cover in the Arctic in 2008.
Prediction of variations in solar cycles 24 to 27
The changing gradient of the bicentennial component of variation in the TSI observed
over three consecutive “short” cycles (Fig. 1) delineates further dynamics in the value
of the TSI and the level of solar activity, not only of these cycles but also subsequent
cycles although with somewhat smaller accuracy. From this consideration, the most
probable maximum in the next, the 24th, solar cycle, will be at sunspot number 65 ±
15. But in the subsequent cycles 25-26, falling in the present bicentennial cycle’s
phase of active decrease, the trend toward reduction in the absolute value of the TSI
will persist, together with decrease in the level of corresponding maxima in solar
activity to 45 ± 20 and sunspot number to 30 ± 20 (Fig. 3, 5). Therefore we would
expect the onset of the phase of deep minimum in the present 200-year cycle of
cyclic activity of the Sun to occur at the beginning of solar cycle 27; i.e., tentatively in
the year 2042 plus or minus 11 years, and potentially lasting 45-65 years.
Reduction in the TSI and the future temperature drop
The most significant solar event in the 20th century was the extraordinarily high level
and the prolonged (virtually over the entire century) increase in the intensity of the
energy radiated by the Sun (Fig. 3). A similar rise in solar radiation has not been
observed in at least 700 years. However, its consequence – the global warming of
climate – that followed, was not an anomalous event in the life of the Earth. Climate
on the Earth has periodically changed, and our planet during the course of the wellstudied, most recent millennia has repeatedly survived global warming, comparable
to that of the current period, after each of which episodes the temperature has
dropped deeply, in a bicentennial cycle. Neither temperature drop nor warming lasts
longer than the 200-year fluctuations of size and luminosity of the Sun.
Fig. 7. Observed trend toward temperature decrease. Figure from the site
The observed prolonged high maximum of solar activity that occurred during the 11th
to 12th centuries’ warming period (the Minor Climate Optimum), which was
comparable to contemporary warming or even greater, caused serious climate
changes. In Scotland vineyards were cultivated; Greenland completely justified its
name of “green land” and was settled by Normans at the end of the tenth and
beginning of the eleventh century. But a subsequent deep fall in the temperature (the
Maunder minimum, the coldest phase of the Little Ice Age) froze all the channels in
Holland, in London froze the Thames, in Paris froze the Seine, and in Greenland
caused the glaciers to grow, forcing people to leave its centuries-old settlements.
The intense solar energy flow radiated since the beginning of the 1990’s is slowly
decreasing and, in spite of conventional opinion, there is now an unavoidable
advance toward a global temperature decrease, a deep temperature drop
comparable to the Maunder minimum (Fig. 5). By the middle of this century the
shortage of solar energy received may be on the order of 0.2% of its maximum
average level in the 1980’s; thus, about 3 W/m2
. Although the change in the TSI
would be at a level of about 0.07% in the “short” cycle, its influence on the climate
would be smoothed out by the thermal inertia of the world ocean. However, if a
similar shortage persists over two cycles, the climate will unavoidably change, with a
time delay of 17 ± 5 years because of the thermal inertia just noted.
Fig. 8. Forecast of the scenario of a deep temperature drop of climate in the middle
of the 21st Century.
At present, in the 23rd “short” solar cycle, which has extended to 12 years, the upper
atmosphere receives in average 0.19 W/m2 less solar energy than it did in the 22nd
solar cycle. Annually, the shortage is 6 x 106
, while over an entire cycle, the
hemisphere of the earth turned to the Sun – an area of 127.5 x 106
– will receive
24 million megajoules less energy than before. The Sun no longer heats the Earth as
before. Our planet experiences a shortage of energy comparable with the summed
power of 21 million nuclear power plants; it is living under the conditions of a cooling
Sun. Consequently, we should expect not the catastrophic melting of ice, but, on the
contrary, the gradual growth of ice caps at the poles. It has already begun: the area
of ice cover in the Arctic in September 2008 (4.52 mln. km2
), in spite of all forecasts,
rose by 390 thousand km2
above that of a year ago (when it was 4.13 mln. km2
in the subsequent four months it grew substantially further (Fig. 6).
British researchers assert that the current temperature drop is due to the La Niña
phenomenon (this name is a translation from the Spanish “la niña” meaning “a girl”)
in the Pacific Ocean, on the coasts of Ecuador, Peru and Columbia. This
phenomenon is characterized by an anomalous decrease in the temperature of the
surface of ocean averaging 0.5-1 degrees. This directly distinguishes the
phenomenon from another widely known phenomenon – the El Niño (El Niño – “a
boy”), which is characterized by an anomalous increase in the temperature of the
surface of ocean. The two phenomena are equally complex to forecast and to
understand. American geophysicists, who have studied them, assume that they can
only be short-term fluctuations in a longer natural cycle, the “super-Niño”. We
consider that all these phenomena (El Niño, La Niña, and “super-Niño”) are
generated by the 11-year and bicentennial fluctuations of the intensity of solar energy
radiation. The presence of correlation among them indicates this.
The tendency toward a decline in global temperature observed in 2006-2008 (Fig. 7)
will stop temporarily in 2010-2012. Then an increase in the TSI is expected, as solar
cycle 24 (a “short” cycle) will temporarily compensate for the declining bicentennial
component. But if solar activity in the “short” cycle does not rise sufficiently, the
cooling of planet will begin to the deep temperature drop in 2055-2060 ± 11 years,
when temperature will be lower by 1.0 – 1.5 degrees. The following climate minimum
will last 45-65 years, after which warming will necessarily begin, but only at the
beginning of the 22nd century (Fig. 8).
Measurements on the board of the Russian segment of the International Space
More-precise determination of the date of the onset of the upcoming deep
temperature drop and the depth of the decrease in the global temperature of the
Earth may be achievable in eight years. For this it will be necessary to conduct
precise (with an error no greater than ± 3-5 km) measurements of the form and
diameter of the Sun, from the Russian segment of the International Space Station,
and within the framework of the Russian – Ukrainian project Astrometria. In the
Pulkovo Observatory within the project framework more than ten years of active work
has been conducted on development of an unique instrument, the solar limbograph
SL -200, whose delivery to the space station is planned for the beginning of 2011
(Fig. 9). The data on changing solar intensity that we will collect over about six years
will enable an extrapolation to past and future periods and development of a more
precise scenario of future climate change. It is precisely for this that the project is
viewed as one of high applied significance.
Fig. 9. Integration of the components of instrumental complex of the solar limbograph
SL-200 of the Astrometria project on the external surface of the Russian segment of
the ISS: 1 – Service module; 2 – Block of optics and mechanics (BOM) of the SL200; 3 and 9 – Dedicated fine tracking platform; 4 – Universal work site (UWS-D); 5 –
Block of mirror light filter of the BOM; 6 – Photoguide; 7 – Tube of the SL-200; 8 –
Block of the heliophotomicrometer of the BOM.
Distant past of the terrestrial climate
In experiments on ice from the boreholes of Greenland and Antarctica (near the
station “Vostok”) at a depth of more than three kilometers are found bubbles of air
from the epochs when the snow was stored. In these bubbles, using modern
methods of high accuracy, researchers establish the CO2 content, oxygen, and other
components of the relict atmosphere, and also the temperature at which the snow
fell. It has been seen that substantial increases in the concentration of carbon dioxide
in the atmosphere and global climate warming have occurred cyclically, even when
there was as yet no industrial action on nature. It has also been established that
periodic, very substantial increases in the carbon dioxide content in the atmosphere
for a period of 420 thousand years never preceded warming, but, on the contrary,
always followed an increase in the temperature with a delay of 200-800 years, i.e.,
they were its consequence (Fig. 10). But the concentration of carbon dioxide in the
atmosphere during the glacial periods of Earth history was always about half that of
Fig. 10. Change in the temperature on the Earth and the concentration of carbon
dioxide in its atmosphere for the last 420,000 years. Figure from the site
Increase in the concentration of greenhouse gases is not the reason for global
warming, but on the contrary, the natural consequence of an increase in the
temperature. The increase of greenhouse gases occurs with a delay, the period
necessary for the warming of the world ocean and melting of icebergs (200-800
years). The ocean serves as the basic depository of CO2, and since the solubility of
gas in the water decreases with an increase in the temperature, the warming of the
ocean leads to the emission of this large volume into the atmosphere. A further
source of CO2 entering the atmosphere was revealed several years ago by the FarEastern Department of the Russian Academy of Sciences: the huge amount of algae
frozen into the icebergs that drift in the Arctic and near the Antarctic coasts. Falling
into warm water after the melting of ice, they rot, giving out carbon dioxide.
Consequently, the widespread point of view of the determining role of industrial
human activity on the global warming of climate is the result of substituting cause for
Thus, the observed global warming of the climate of the Earth is caused not by the
anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gases, but primarily by extraordinarily high
solar intensity that extended over virtually the entire past century. Future decrease in
global temperature will occur even if anthropogenic ejection of carbon dioxide into
the atmosphere rises to record levels.
Fig. 11. Observed stabilization of temperature for the last ten years and its tendency
to drop in 2006-2008.
Warming on Mars and other planets
A global increase in temperature has also occurred on Mars. NASA researchers,
after tracing changes on its surface from 1999 until 2005, discovered melting ice at
Mars’ south pole and warming of the Martian climate, a natural event that occurred
without any contribution by Martians or greenhouse effect driven by Martians.
Analogous processes have also been observed on Jupiter, Neptune, Triton, Pluto
and other planets of the solar system. These can only be the direct consequences of
the action of one and the same factor – the prolonged and extraordinarily high level of
the energy radiated by the Sun.
Warming on Mars did not occur as a result of change in the shape of its orbit and
inclination of its axis of rotation, as is frequently asserted: these processes occur on
time frames of tens of thousands of years, and therefore in this negligible time frame
(six years!) in no way could they affect the climate. The recently-observed dust
storms on Mars could arise as a result of uneven heating of various regions on the
surface of planet by anomalously intensive solar radiation. Warming in turn led to
change in the surfaces of planets so that they absorb more solar energy, and the
physical properties of planetary atmospheres changed. These indirect results of the
influence of the Sun caused increase in temperature additional to that directly caused
by the bicentennial increase in the TSI.
According to the calculations carried out both in our laboratory and by foreign
colleagues, the direct influence of a bicentennial variation in the TSI accounts for
only about half of the amplitude of change in the global temperature of the Earth and
only at first. The other half is an indirect impact: with a change in the temperature
comes a change in the reflectivity of the earth’s surface and change in the
concentration of water vapor, carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases in the
atmosphere, each of which additionally and sharply accelerates further change in
There is no ocean on Mars; therefore its thermal inertia is much lower, and cooling
begins much faster than the Earth. A drop in its temperature is a harbinger of
temperature drop on Earth.
Influence of water vapor and carbon dioxide
Calculations carried out in our laboratory have showed that the energy absorbed by
CO2 (in the absorption bands 2.2-3 µm; 3.6-4.7 µm; 12.8-17.3 µm) and water vapour
H2O (4.4-8.8 µm; 5.5-7.5 µm; 15-30 µm and more than 20 µm), constitute
approximately 63% of the entire thermal radiation of the Earth. About 51% is
absorbed by water vapor and only about 12% by carbon dioxide. The Earth’s
atmosphere transmits about 10% of its own thermal emission into space, and the
remaining 27% is absorbed by clouds and molecules of other greenhouse gases,
primarily methane. Thus, water vapor absorbs more than half of all the radiated heat,
and carbon dioxide takes only second place.
If it were possible to withdraw carbon dioxide from the atmosphere, its absorption
would decrease from 63 to 51%. However, an increase in the concentration of
carbon dioxide will cause virtually no increase in absorption. This is explained by the
fact that in the wavelength range 4.7-12.8 µm (infrared radiation) carbon dioxide
virtually does not absorb. The basic atmospheric window is located in the wavelength
range 9-12 µm, while the maximum of the earth’s blackbody radiation is about 10
µm. Outside the transmission window radiation does not pass into space, even with
the present level of the concentration of carbon dioxide.
A basic effect on the thermal condition of the Earth has precisely a variation in the
TSI. With its decrease by 1.0 W/m2
the temperature of the Earth may decline up to
0.2 degrees, and the mean albedo of surface increase approximately to 0.003
(according to calculations, an increase in the albedo of 0.01 leads to a decrease in
average annual temperature of approximately 0.7 degrees).
Determinative role of the Sun in variations in the climate of the Earth
The Earth, after receiving and storing over the twentieth century an anomalously
large amount of heat energy, from the 1990’s began to return it gradually. The upper
layers of the world ocean, completely unexpectedly to climatologists, began to cool in
2003. The heat accumulated by them unfortunately now is running out.
Over the past decade, global temperature on the Earth has not increased; global
warming has ceased, and already there are signs of the future deep temperature
drop (Fig. 7, 11). Meantime the concentration of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere
over these years has grown by more than 4%, and in 2006 many meteorologists
predicted that 2007 would be the hottest of the last decade. This did not occur,
although the global temperature of the Earth would have increased at least 0.1
degree if it depended on the concentration of carbon dioxide. It follows that warming
had a natural origin, the contribution of CO2 to it was insignificant, anthropogenic
increase in the concentration of carbon dioxide does not serve as an explanation for
it, and in the foreseeable future CO2 will not be able to cause catastrophic warming.
The so-called greenhouse effect will not avert the onset of the next deep temperature
drop, the 19th in the last 7500 years, which without fail follows after natural warming.
The earth is no longer threatened by the catastrophic global warming forecast by
some scientists; warming passed its peak in 1998-2005, while the value of the TSI by
July – September of last year had already declined by 0.47 W/m2
For several years until the beginning in 2013 of a steady temperature drop, in a
phase of instability, temperature will oscillate around the maximum that has been
reached, without further substantial rise. Changes in climatic conditions will occur
unevenly, depending on latitude. A temperature decrease in the smallest degree
would affect the equatorial regions and strongly influence the temperate climate
zones. The changes will have very serious consequences, and it is necessary to
begin preparations even now, since there is practically no time in reserve. The global
temperature of the Earth has begun its decrease without limitations on the volume of
greenhouse gas emissions by industrially developed countries; therefore the
implementation of the Kyoto protocol aimed to rescue the planet from the
greenhouse effect should be put off at least 150 years.
Consequently, we should fear a deep temperature drop, but not catastrophic global
warming. Humanity must survive the serious economic, social, demographic and
political consequences of a global temperature drop, which will directly affect the
national interests of almost all countries and more than 80% of the population of the
Earth. A deep temperature drop is a considerably greater threat to humanity than
warming. However, a reliable forecast of the time of the onset and of the depth of the
global temperature drop will make it possible to adjust in advance the economic
activity of humanity, to considerably weaken the crisis.
1. Borisenkov E.P. Climate variations during the last millennium. – Leningrad,
2. Abdussamatov H.I. On the decrease of the flow of solar radiation and a
decrease in the global temperature of the Earth to the state of deep
temperature drop in the middle of the 21st Century // Proceedings of KrAO,
2007, Vol. 103, № 4, p. 292 – 298.
3. Abdussamatov H.I. et al. Project Astrometria on the measurement of the time
variations in form and diameter of the Sun on the service module of the
Russian segment of the ISS // Proceedings of RAS, physical section, 2007, Vol.
71, № 4, p. 611 – 616.
4. Scafetta N. and West B. J. Is Climate Sensitive to Solar Variability? // Physics
Today, 2008, #3, Vol. 61.
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